Sunday, January 20, 2008

K.I.S.S.



There were many short opportunities Thursday and Friday, but I wanted to focus on a long that followed the K.I.S.S. philosophy. I find several of these every week - setups that don't require a lot of thought, a lot of lines, or a lot of strategy.

AKAM gapped up and printed a wide-range first bar. The second bar was narrow-range, and "nestled" in the first bar's upper 1/3. More importantly for me, it closed above the swing high of the previous day (note the white horizontal line drawn through the highest close from the day before). It also closed just below R2 (blue horizontal line), which was somewhat negative. But the close above the white line and support from a rising 5MA offset that, and I entered on a break of the second bar high.

I was looking for a move to R3 (yellow horizontal line), and I closed the position four bars later when it hit that level. Overall it was a quick, clean 3% move.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do you calculate beyond R2 and S2?

Tom C said...

No, but I do eyeball them.

Anonymous said...

Do you use Fib lines on this setup?

Anonymous said...

do you look at previous daily or intraday chart for support and resistance? If so how many days?

Tom C said...

Victor, yes - the pivot points are calculated off of the previous day's action. I use the standard PP calculations - do a Google search.
I generally only look at the previous day and don't go back further.

Anonymous said...

Of course you can just delete my questions, but it would be nice if you could answer the following :

What is your win rate ?
What is your expectancy ?

It does not make you less of a trader if your numbers are not great. If you can make a living by trading, then you're good enough. Obviously, you can always make up numbers if you wanted to :). I think it just gives your viewers a better idea and realistic expectations when/if they follow into your footsteps (and if they work at it for many years).

I know X would not answer questions like these, but maybe you are different ?

Good blog,

A loyal reader.

Tom C said...

Actually, X did answer those questions.

As for me, my win rate last quarter was a bit over 70%. I try to limit the number of trades I make to the highest quality, as opposed to making trading a numbers game and taking as many as possible. I am not knocking that option, it is just not for me.

I have been traing for almost 15 years.